One-fifth of Republicans are conservative or observant Catholics and look like the history of industrialized America that took pro-life, socially conservative, patriotic Catholics into the Republican Party, particularly in the Midwest and Northeast. That is why we conducted one of our focus groups for the Trump-GOP project among Catholic conservative […] Read more »
CNN Polls: Missouri, Nevada Senators face close races in re-election bids
The sitting Senators in two of the most closely watched re-election fights this fall are running nearly even with their challengers, according to new CNN polls conducted by SSRS. Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill edges challenger Josh Hawley 47% to 44% among likely voters in Republican-friendly Missouri, while Republican Sen. Dean […] Read more »
Trump Can’t Win the War on Demography
Since the early days of his campaign, from his proposal to build a wall along the Mexican border to his discredited committee on voter fraud, President Trump has declared war on America’s changing demography. His administration has followed through on that strategy with a proposal to add a question to […] Read more »
Partisan rage over Kavanaugh allegations erupts into midterm campaigns
The emotional battle over sexual assault allegations against Supreme Court nominee Brett M. Kavanaugh burst into the midterm elections after a dramatic week of wrenching testimony and raw partisan rage on Capitol Hill, tossing an explosive and sensitive issue into the final weeks of the closely fought campaign for control […] Read more »
Consequences of a Kavanaugh Confirmation? Yes, in the Long Term
When a political event of any note occurs in the midst of a campaign season—and often when it doesn’t—media commentators predictably lapse into extensive speculation about its likely effect on the outcome of the next election. … I remain skeptical that the Kavanaugh appointment, however it turns out, will exert […] Read more »
What We’ve Learned About Undecided Voters Heading Into the Midterms
We don’t tend to talk much about undecided voters in political analysis. Sometimes, you can gloss over them altogether by referring to a candidate’s polling lead, such as “Dems plus-5.” But undecided voters can decide elections; in 2016 they played a key role in swinging toward Mr. Trump in the […] Read more »