What We’ve Learned About Undecided Voters Heading Into the Midterms

We don’t tend to talk much about undecided voters in political analysis. Sometimes, you can gloss over them altogether by referring to a candidate’s polling lead, such as “Dems plus-5.”

But undecided voters can decide elections; in 2016 they played a key role in swinging toward Mr. Trump in the critical battleground states. This year, the battle for control of the House is more than close enough for a similar swing to flip the House either way.

Over the last three weeks, we’ve interviewed more than 1,000 undecided voters in Upshot/Siena polls of competitive congressional races. CONT.

Nate Cohn, New York Times