The brain learns in different ways. Mastering French verbs requires repetition. A single distressing experience, however, can impart a lasting lesson in moments; a car crash survivor, for instance, might come away with a deep fear of riding in cars. A lesson like that is hard to unlearn, even if […] Read more »
States of Play: Georgia
Key Points• Over the last few decades, Georgia has gone from a swing state to reliably GOP. But it’s now looking like a genuinely competitive state again.• Democrats have made major inroads in both urban Atlanta and its suburbs, but their gains have been somewhat blunted by the sharp Republican […] Read more »
This year’s Senate races spell disaster for the Republican Party
Republicans are beginning to gird themselves for a landslide defeat for President Trump that drags the entire party down. It could be even worse than they think. Elections in both the House and Senate are increasingly syncing with broader presidential races. In 2016, every Senate race was won by the […] Read more »
How Trump Could Improve His Electoral Odds
In this week’s FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the team considers various strategies that President Trump and Republicans could use to improve their electoral prospects this fall — ranging from a new running mate to a vacancy on the U.S. Supreme Court. FiveThirtyEight Read more »
A simple forecast suggests a Democratic sweep in 2020
The covid-19-driven economic collapse, upheaval over racial politics in the United States and President Trump’s consistently low popularity ratings have given Democrats an opening to win the presidency and both houses of Congress in 2020. Our prediction, based on economic indicators and presidential approval ratings, provides a simple, albeit early, […] Read more »
Trump faces a now historical disadvantage
… Polls taken around Independence Day in an election year are actually pretty highly correlated with the November results in incumbent contests. That means Trump is in a lot of trouble. Take a look at the 13 incumbent elections dating all the way back to 1940. Usually going all the […] Read more »