When your presidential candidate is not doing well, it’s not uncommon to look around for historical analogies in which a similarly downtrodden candidate has made a dramatic comeback to win. … So observers looking about for an example Trump might yet emulate are going back 68 years, to Harry Truman’s […] Read more »
Republican internal polling signals a Democratic rout
Whenever I hear an operative complain about public polling, I have just one thing to say: Put up or shut up. Release your own numbers that show the race in a different place than the public polling, or let the public polling stand. This is especially true in House races, […] Read more »
The House: Democratic Murmurings in the Texas Suburbs – and Elsewhere
Key Points• Joe Biden’s currently strong lead in the presidential race is being felt in the suburbs, which if it lasts could imperil Republicans in some of their formerly dark red turf.• Texas merits special attention, where as many as 10 Republican-held House seats could become vulnerable if Trump were […] Read more »
Trump’s reelection campaign is in crisis
The past three months have been a catastrophe for President Trump. With the odds against his reelection lengthening, and just 126 days until the election, the time to turn things around is dwindling. The president could still win a narrow victory, but only if everything breaks right. … The president’s […] Read more »
Why the Dukakis 1988 analogy is baloney
Most observers writing about President Donald Trump’s weak reelection standing note that George H.W. Bush was in a deeper hole yet managed to crawl out to win comfortably in 1988. They make the point that November is still months away, and things can change. But the 1988 case isn’t useful […] Read more »
‘Trump’s getting into underdog territory’
538’s Nate Silver on whether he thinks President Trump should worry about recent polls. This Week, ABC News The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack Read more »