Wrong. Underwood Archives/Getty Images W. Joseph Campbell, American University School of Communication The question looms in nearly every U.S. presidential election, even in this year’s race: Could the polls be wrong? If they are, they likely will err in unique fashion. The history of election polling says as much. That […] Read more »
Can Trump Pull Off an Upset Like Harry Truman’s in 1948?
When your presidential candidate is not doing well, it’s not uncommon to look around for historical analogies in which a similarly downtrodden candidate has made a dramatic comeback to win. … So observers looking about for an example Trump might yet emulate are going back 68 years, to Harry Truman’s […] Read more »
Candidates who recover from Trump-like deficits are rarely incumbents
The polls are fairly unanimous: Former Vice President Joe Biden holds a significant advantage over President Donald Trump. On average, he’s up by 10 points nationally and in the pivotal battleground state of Wisconsin. There is time for Trump to mount a comeback, but the candidates who do come back […] Read more »
Joe Biden hits a milestone Hillary Clinton never did: 50%
Most times when we look at polling we talk about margins. For example, former Vice President Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump by a 7 point margin in an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll out on Sunday. What that can miss, however, is that Biden’s close to 50% (49%), while […] Read more »
Donald Trump starts 2020 in the worst polling position since Harry Truman
… Trump is the first incumbent president to be trailing at this point in the general election cycle (i.e. late March in the election year) since Harry Truman in 1948. Now, we’re still more than half a year away from the election. It would be easy to dismiss Biden’s advantage […] Read more »
Who Had the Lowest Gallup Presidential Job Approval Rating?
Harry Truman registered a 22% job approval rating in a Feb. 9-14, 1952, Gallup poll. This occurred late in his second term, as the U.S. was dealing with an economic slowdown, a prolonged military engagement in the Korean War, labor strife and federal government corruption. CONT. Jeffrey M. Jones, Gallup Read more »