… Trump is the first incumbent president to be trailing at this point in the general election cycle (i.e. late March in the election year) since Harry Truman in 1948.
Now, we’re still more than half a year away from the election. It would be easy to dismiss Biden’s advantage as meaningless. To do so, however, would be a mistake in my opinion.
Polling at this point in the general election cycle when an incumbent is running is correlated with the ultimate outcome. A candidate in Biden’s position would win the popular vote about two-thirds of the time if historical trends hold. CONT.
Harry Enten, CNN