The polls are fairly unanimous: Former Vice President Joe Biden holds a significant advantage over President Donald Trump. On average, he’s up by 10 points nationally and in the pivotal battleground state of Wisconsin. There is time for Trump to mount a comeback, but the candidates who do come back […] Read more »
Trump now trails significantly in 2016’s most pivotal state
As we’ve watched former Vice President Joe Biden’s national lead over President Donald Trump grow, the question was whether we would see it reflected in state polls. We can now answer that question in the affirmative. We still have over four months to go, so there’s time for things to […] Read more »
The Electoral College: Trump’s Floodgates are Creaking
Key Points• We are making two Electoral College rating changes this week.• Florida moves from Leans Republican to Toss-up, and Pennsylvania moves from Toss-up to Leans Democratic.• This means 268 electoral votes are rated as at least leaning to Joe Biden in our ratings; 204 are at least leaning to […] Read more »
Biden’s VP Selection is Unlikely to Have Much of an Effect on the Dynamics of the Race
With the 2020 general election season on the horizon, anticipation continues to grow over who Joe Biden will select as his vice president. As the Biden campaign has narrowed down potential running mate options to a shortlist, consensus is still lacking over what Democrats themselves want and what might constitute […] Read more »
Do you buy that Trump can ride a midwest path to victory in 2020?
FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver looks at what polling data says about the likelihood of the 2020 electoral map looking like it did in 2016. This Week, ABC News The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack Read more »
New 2020 Electoral College Ratings
With just under five months until the election, President Trump is a severe underdog for re-election. Polls show that voters do not trust him to handle the two most pressing issues of the day — the coronavirus pandemic and race relations — which has helped drive his job approval to […] Read more »