There’s a big blue wave coming

There’s a wave coming. A blue wave like the one in 2018. Only bigger. Much bigger. Big enough to sweep away President Trump and the Republican majority in the Senate. … Every national poll taken over the past month shows Democrat Joe Biden leading Trump; the average margin is approaching […] Read more »

Senate Democratic candidates are raising tons of money. That matters.

… Historically, candidates who raise more money increase their chances of winning significantly. This means the more money Democrats are raking in, the better chance they have at winning a Senate majority. Take a look at more than 100 Senate races for which there was polling from January to June […] Read more »

4 poll numbers that could spell doom for Trump and the GOP

We’re less than four months from the 2020 election, and President Trump is in a bad way. A slew of national polls show him losing to Joe Biden by an average of around nine points; swing-state polls almost universally show Biden leading; and worry is growing on the right not […] Read more »

The Polls Weren’t Far off in 2016. They Aren’t Wrong Now, Either.

Over the last few weeks, my political conversations have started to change. They now often lead off with a question like “Can President Trump turn this election around?” or “What would it take for him to win a second term?” That’s quite a shift from just a few months ago, […] Read more »