The brain learns in different ways. Mastering French verbs requires repetition. A single distressing experience, however, can impart a lasting lesson in moments; a car crash survivor, for instance, might come away with a deep fear of riding in cars. A lesson like that is hard to unlearn, even if its basis is irrational. For anyone who analyzes political polls—including me, a neuroscientist hooked on election forecasting—the 2016 presidential race may have constituted a similarly traumatic event, one that left the mind reeling. …
After the upset of 2016, many political journalists might be tempted to fear polling data. Paying attention to opinion surveys, these reporters worry, could lead the public astray. But psychological research shows that a disturbing memory, born of trauma, can focus on the wrong triggering event. If we become afraid of polls, I think we are learning a false lesson. CONT.
Sam Wang (Princeton), Columbia Journalism Review