… Polls taken around Independence Day in an election year are actually pretty highly correlated with the November results in incumbent contests. That means Trump is in a lot of trouble.
Take a look at the 13 incumbent elections dating all the way back to 1940. Usually going all the way back in time will lead you to find a lot of volatile campaigns, as more modern ones tend to be more steady. Yet, since 1940, the final result differs from the polls at this point by an average of just 7 points. The median difference is only about 4.5 points. …
More troublesome for Trump: no one in an incumbent presidential election has been polling above 50% at this point like Biden and gone on to lose. CONT.
Harry Enten, CNN
Recent polls: Trump vs. Biden
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