With our federal races becoming increasingly more parliamentary—9 out of 10 voters simply cast either Democratic or Republican votes up and down the ballot—the direction and velocity of the national political winds are becoming increasingly important. So where do we stand today, on Labor Day, 14 months before the 2022 […] Read more »
How Republicans are set to boost Democratic turnout in 2022
Just as Democrats were starting to watch their chances of maintaining majorities in Congress get washed out to sea with President Joe Biden’s declining job approval ratings, Republicans have handed them at least one, and maybe two, life preservers for the 2022 elections. With the historical trend of midterms and […] Read more »
The California Recall Could Be a Road Map for Democrats
California Governor Gavin Newsom is confronting the toughest challenge Democrats may face in next year’s midterm election—and guiding his party toward a possible solution as the Republican-driven recall against him enters its final days. One key reason the president’s party historically fares so poorly in midterm elections is that its […] Read more »
Afghanistan won’t doom Democrats in 2022. But it has left a wound.
Afghanistan is a political disaster for the Biden administration. Americans have long wanted the war to end, but they also believe Biden botched the withdrawal: 71 percent of Americans rate his handling of Afghanistan as “only fair” or “poor” while just 27 percent say his performance is “excellent” or “good.” […] Read more »
It’s Still All About COVID
For the last couple of weeks, I’ve been watching focus groups. Two of those groups included independent-leaning voters who don’t align themselves strongly with either party. One other group was comprised of so-called Democratic “surge” voters; people who vote infrequently or only in presidential elections. In other words, these are […] Read more »
Don’t Be So Sure a Supreme Court Backlash Will Boost Democrats
It took about a minute and a half between the Supreme Court’s decision to let a draconian, constitutionally bizarre abortion law take effect and the widespread conclusion that it would prove a boon to Democratic political hopes even as it provoked their moral outrage. … There is plausibility to this […] Read more »