Key Points• Midterm electorates are typically whiter and more educated than presidential electorates.• At one time, this sort of change from the presidential to the midterm electorate might have made midterm electorates worse for Democrats. But given changes in the electorate, this midterm turnout pattern may actually aid Democrats, or […] Read more »
Notes on the State of Politics: California and Indiana
It is going to take a while to get the final results in the California gubernatorial recall. But we know enough to say that the race was not at all close, and that Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) should not have any trouble winning a second term next year. So as […] Read more »
Newsom’s winning recall strategy offers a playbook for Democrats in 2022
… The biggest lesson from this race is that California should immediately change its recall law, which mandates a recall election for a statewide elected official if just 12 percent of voters sign a petition supporting it. But I think there are also lessons from California for Democrats as they […] Read more »
5 takeaways after Newsom survives California recall attempt
California Gov. Gavin Newsom ably fended off a recall attempt from Republicans on Tuesday, changing the stakes of the contest from a referendum on his own performance and into a partisan fight over Trumpism and the coronavirus. Here are five takeaways from Newsom’s victory: CONTINUED Nicholas Riccardi, Associated Press Read more »
Most Republicans want Trump as the GOP’s leader but are divided about whether he’d help them retake the White House
Most Republicans want former President Donald Trump to remain their party’s leader, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS. But differing views about Trump’s role in the party — and his strength as a future presidential nominee — highlight divides within the GOP. Republicans and Republican-leaning independents say, […] Read more »
Generic congressional ballot is tied for the first time since 2015
The generic congressional ballot is tied at 42% among a sample of N=800 registered voters in a survey conducted September 1st-September 8th with a margin of error of +3.46%. The last time the generic congressional ballot was tied was back in October 2015, also at 42%. The last time this […] Read more »