All presidents inevitably encounter serious challenges, when events and circumstances go badly, whether controllable by that president and administration or not, that can affect that president’s standings with the public and even trajectory of the balance of the administration. Whether the president is fairly placed or not is not terribly […] Read more »
Four ways to think about Abbott’s and DeSantis’s 2022 prospects
Even pre-pandemic, Republican Govs. Greg Abbott of Texas and Ron DeSantis of Florida were obsessed with “own the libs” moves that at times broke with core democratic values, mostly notably DeSantis’s efforts to make it harder for felons to regain their voting rights. But covid-19 has shown the serious danger […] Read more »
How the White House and Democrats hope to survive Biden’s political bruises
President Joe Biden was likely to lose Democratic control of Congress before last week’s carnage in Afghanistan. That’s more likely now. But the imminent loss of power makes politicians act with greater urgency. For Biden and his party, that just happens to represent their best hope of ultimately not losing […] Read more »
Pollsters confront tough survey landscape after 2020 flubs
Academic and nonpartisan pollsters surveying voters ahead of key election contests this year are trying new technology and massaging their existing methodology in hopes of correcting the errors that led them to underestimate Donald Trump’s level of support in the 2020 election. But those pollsters on the front lines today […] Read more »
The storms of August: Biden’s devastating month stokes midterm fears among Democrats
President Biden is mired in the most devastating month of his tenure in office — struggling to contain a deadly crisis in Afghanistan, an unyielding pandemic and other setbacks that have sent waves of anger and worry through his party as his poll numbers decline. August started with Democrats sounding […] Read more »
What Virginia Tells Us About the Midterms
Off-year elections are a Rosetta Stone for analysts and operatives. While their political significance is universally overstated, these elections drive media narratives and offer clues as to how the political environment is shaping up for the midterm elections in 2022. In addition to the California recall election on September 14, […] Read more »