What is potentially so damaging for President Biden and Democrats isn’t so much the substance of the decision to pull out of Afghanistan. After all, any chance of the conflict turning out well ended about 15 years ago. It was the shambolic execution of it. The intelligence community, Pentagon officials, […] Read more »
Redistricting in America, Part Six: The Great Lakes
Key Points• This week, we’re looking at redistricting in seven Midwest/Great Lakes states: Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.• The highly competitive region was a collective nailbiter for president, and Republicans hold an overall House edge there, though not as large as earlier last decade.• Illinois is really […] Read more »
Mask wars preview the 2022 battle for the Sun Belt
The fierce political struggles erupting across the Sun Belt this summer over mask mandates and other public health precautions against Covid-19 point toward epic governors’ races next year that will test how much the political balance of power has changed in the rapidly growing states at the epicenter of the […] Read more »
How the political environment is moving toward Republicans
Republicans gained a seat in the Connecticut state Senate this week. They won a special election in a district that President Joe Biden won by more than 20 points in 2020. Any individual special election such as this one comes with its caveats, but the trend in special state elections […] Read more »
Redistricting in America, Part Five: The Interior West/Heartland
Key Points• For all of the focus on redistricting, the overall political environment matters for House elections too, and President Biden has shown some signs of weakness in recent weeks.• As we continue our redistricting series, we analyze several small-to-medium-sized states in the Interior West and Heartland.• One of the […] Read more »
I don’t buy that the 2020 census is good news for Democrats: Nate Silver
538’s Nate Silver breaks down what the changing U.S. demographics revealed by the 2020 census means for redistricting. This Week, ABC News The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack Read more »