It’s never too early to try identifying the next big demographic that will play a significant role in the outcome of the next round of elections. … My initial targeting for 2014 will be to focus on what I refer to as “The Resentfuls” — Rhonda and Rex Resentful (if […] Read more »
Five Signs Define the Direction of the 2014 Midterm Elections
… When thinking about the 2014 midterm, the obvious question is whether this election will be a continuation of the dynamics of 2012, in which Republicans continue to have problems with minority, female, younger, and moderate voters, or whether the historic dynamic of voters showing displeasure with presidents halfway through […] Read more »
‘Tea party’ tempest brewing
… After the GOP debacle in the 2012 election, when Republicans not only failed to win the presidency but blew a chance to take over the Senate, party leaders paused to consider what had gone wrong. The Republican National Committee issued a scathing report warning that the party was in […] Read more »
Stuart Rothenberg: Latest Scandals Help GOP
Gerald Seib of The Wall Street Journal speaks with elections forecaster Stuart Rothenberg about 2014. Read more »
The GOP’s Built-In Midterm Turnout Advantage
If and when Republicans gain a modest number of House and Senate seats in November 2014, the Beltway set may be tempted to interpret the results as a sixth-year itch rebuke of President Obama on everything from IRS/DOJ/Benghazi to rocky implementation of the Affordable Care Act. To do so would […] Read more »
What Does an Improving Economy Mean for 2014?
Good economic times are good for incumbents. After all, voters are more apt to look for change in tough times than they are in good ones. Significant economic anxiety contributed to the “wave” elections of 2008 and 2010. In 2012, the economy improved just enough to help President Obama win […] Read more »