… When thinking about the 2014 midterm, the obvious question is whether this election will be a continuation of the dynamics of 2012, in which Republicans continue to have problems with minority, female, younger, and moderate voters, or whether the historic dynamic of voters showing displeasure with presidents halfway through their second term reoccurs. When the latter happens, it usually brings about substantial losses in the House or Senate, or both. Should Democrats face a backlash during the next phase of implementation of the Affordable Care Act, those sentiments would feed into this dynamic as well.
At The Cook Political Report, we have identified five metrics to help ascertain whether either party is facing an undertow, although we could obviously note dozens more as well. [cont.]
Charlie Cook
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