If you’re looking for a major difference between the last midterm election in 2010 and the one coming up in 2014, we’ve got one for you: gubernatorial incumbency — the lack of it in ’10 and the abundance of it in ’14. … Why does this matter? Because since 1960, […] Read more »
Why It Matters that Obama’s Approval Rating Is Falling
Despite ridiculous hype about a recent CNN poll that showed an exaggerated 8-point drop in Obama’s approval rating, there’s no doubt that his approval rating is about 4 points lower than it was in January 2013. There’s lots of speculation as to why—see, e.g., Nate Silver. But I want to […] Read more »
No Guarantee of a GOP Senate Majority
Between the “sorting out” that took place in the past four elections and a redistricting process that maximized the number of safe seats for both parties—but especially for Republicans—the bulk of the 2014 congressional election action won’t be in the House, but in the Senate. The disproportionate exposure for Senate […] Read more »
Can the Republicans expect a midterm election bump in 2014?
Barack Obama won the 2008 presidency by 7.3pt. Two years later, his Democratic party lost 63 seats and control of the House of Representatives. Two years after that, Obama won re-election by 3.9pt. The incongruity of the middle result has led people to wonder why Democrats did better in the […] Read more »
Why Republicans Can Get Away With Ignoring Their Problems
Republicans have a problem with young voters. Democrats have a problem with young nonvoters. That simple equation, which applies equally to minority voters, helps explain why Republicans could enjoy another strong midterm election in 2014 without solving any of the underlying demographic challenges that threaten them in the 2016 presidential […] Read more »
Course Corrections: A Midterm Theory
… There are many things we do not yet know about the midterm election: The state of the economy and President Obama’s approval rating a year from now are both mysteries. What we do know, though, is the history — both of American midterms in general and of the Senate […] Read more »