Pennsylvania Senate contest narrows

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The party bases are consolidating around their candidates in the Pennsylvania Senate race, now a toss-up contest with Lt. Gov. John Fetterman ahead by two points heading into their debate Tuesday night. He led by five points a month ago. To the extent there is attitudinal change, it’s partly driven by more Republicans “coming home” toward Dr. Mehmet Oz: the percentage of Republicans saying they’d vote for their nominee is up to 94% from 87% last month. …

This month a slightly smaller majority say Fetterman is healthy enough to serve, driven by Republicans who say “no” in greater numbers now — only a quarter of Republicans say he is — once again suggesting the campaign themes are working with the party bases, but not as much beyond them. CONTINUED

CBS News

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People don’t think the government is doing enough to combat climate change

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A majority of the public think the federal government is not doing enough to combat climate change. There is support for providing consumers with rebates to purchase energy efficient appliances or tax credits to install solar panels, though few expect to do so personally in the next few years. More than half of the public think it is important for the government to restrict companies’ greenhouse emissions and provide incentives for the companies to do so. There is less support for incentivizing or restricting individuals’ greenhouse emissions.

Sixty-one percent of adults have heard nothing or only a little about the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, which includes provisions to incentivize climate-friendly behaviors. Only a third think the legislation will help with climate change. Few say it will play a major role in whether they install solar panels, purchase an electric vehicle or install an electric vehicle charging station, or apply for a green energy job in the next three years. CONTINUED

AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research

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The skyrocketing support for legal marijuana

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When same-sex marriage was legalized nationwide, political and social scientists noted the societal shift on the issue had been remarkable — even unparalleled. Before the Supreme Court enshrined the right into law in 2015, Americans had moved sharply in favor of it, and they have continued to do so since then.

“You can’t find another issue where attitudes have shifted so rapidly,” a political scientist told The Washington Post.

It turns out you kind of can — because marijuana is on virtually the same trajectory.

Monmouth University released a new poll Monday finding that nearly 7 in 10 Americans — 68 percent — support legalizing small amounts for personal use, compared with just 26 percent who oppose it. CONTINUED

Aaron Blake, Washington Post

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Nearly 6 in 10 Voters Reject Criminalizing Any Abortions

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A majority of voters (57%) say the government should not make abortion a crime, punishable with prison time or fines. This includes seven-in-ten Democrats and nearly two-thirds of independents. Among Republicans, 77% oppose criminalization before fetal viability (22-24 weeks), including 42% who oppose any criminalization and 35% who only favor criminalization after fetal viability.

Respondents were presented three options and informed that making abortion a crime means punishing the woman or the doctor with prison time and/or major fines, which is the law in states where abortion is criminalized. Just 14% of voters nationwide favor criminalizing abortion at all stages of pregnancy, including just 17% in the fifteen states with full abortion bans, 21% of Republicans, and 32% of Republican evangelicals. …

In the innovative public consultation survey of 2,604 registered voters by the Program for Public Consultation (PPC) at the University of Maryland, respondents were given a briefing on the subject of abortion and the potential role of government. They were presented a series of policy options and evaluated a series of strongly stated arguments for and against, before making their final recommendations. The survey content was reviewed by experts from differing sides of the abortion debate to assure that the briefings were accurate and balanced and that the arguments were the strongest ones being made. CONTINUED

Program for Public Consultation, School of Public Policy, U. of Maryland

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While Still Low, Biden’s Approval Ticks Upward

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While a new national University of Massachusetts Amherst Poll finds President Joe Biden’s job approval inching up to 40% for the first time in 2022, more than half of the country say it would be better off for the nation if both he and former President Donald Trump stepped away from politics in 2024. …

“While not the great bounce back that some Democrats may have hoped for, President Biden has indeed stabilized his falling approval numbers from earlier this spring,” says Tatishe Nteta, professor of political science at UMass Amherst and director of the poll. …

Asked about two of the many legal entanglements Trump finds himself facing, half of the poll’s respondents say he should be charged with a crime for both his efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 election (50%) leading up to the events at the Capitol on January 6, 2021, and for not returning the hundreds of classified documents (51%) found by the FBI at Mar-a-Lago this past summer. CONTINUED

University of Massachusetts Amherst

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Too close to call? When is a dead heat really a dead heat?

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The headline in the Washington Post Metro section on Oct. 22 was clear: “Poll shows Luria, Kiggans in dead heat in final leg of crucial race.” …

My immediate take was that, based solely on the poll’s ballot test, Luria is an underdog and in deep trouble. That’s because at this point in the election cycle the incumbent’s percentage in the head-to-head ballot test has always been one of the most important indicators to me. …

In a campaign’s final weeks, I always want to know where the incumbent stands because that tells me a lot about the strength of the midterm dynamic — which favors the party not in the White House — and about the ability of a particular incumbent to swim against the current. CONTINUED

Stuart Rothenberg, Roll Call

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