Why it matters if the polls miss again

· Leave a Comment

I’m cutting to the chase: We have no idea if polls are overestimating Democrats this year. I could spend this column trying to read a crystal ball, pretending I have some sort of special insight, but I don’t, and there are plenty of others doing that. We’ve gotten better this cycle at talking about uncertainty in polls and how they can’t tell you who will win the race. That hasn’t stopped anyone from using polls as forecasts, but at least the discussion is improving.

If polls overestimate Democrats again, however, I’m genuinely worried for the future of the industry—but more because of where we are as a country right now than because of the numeric value of a poll miss. …

At a less precarious moment in history, poll errors would just be poll errors. But I’m worried about what another cycle of overestimating Democrats means in those dark, conspiratorial corners of society that already believe an election was stolen with zero evidence. CONTINUED

Natalie Jackson, National Journal

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack

Democrats Must Still Close On The Cost-Of-Living

· Leave a Comment

The Democrats have lost ground in this survey from +3 overall margin to even in this survey — and to -2 in the likely electorate. That is driven by Democrats not addressing the top issue, cost of living, where they lost 3 points to be 3 points down and Republicans driving up fears on crime and borders.

Democrats are being hurt by the persistence of the economy and crime issue and late hits by the Republicans on on the border and immigration– and that is driving the current slippage. Current Republican strategies on this issue are working. But it is the cost of living – the top worry — that is still potentially contested. ​…

It is going to get worse, unless Democrats focus on the cost of living and make it their closing message. Our cost of living message (and recognizing no pay raise) is the only message that marginally grows the vote against this onslaught. The message currently being used by the White House and many national Democrats loses the vote further. CONTINUED

Democracy Corps

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack

Voters’ message to next Congress: Be more effective, fix the economy

· Leave a Comment

“Be more effective” and “fix the economy” were two of the leading messages voters surveyed in a new NBC News poll said when asked to send a message to candidates who will be elected in November’s midterm elections. Voters were allowed to give open-ended responses, which pollsters then categorized into distinct themes.

Fourteen percent of those surveyed said something close to the phrases, “be more effective,” “be more productive,” or “do more.” Fourteen percent aligned with the message, “fix the economy,” or “reduce the cost of living,” and an additional ten percent aligned with the message, “protect women’s rights.” CONTINUED

Alexandra Marquez, NBC News

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack

Americans Less Optimistic About Next Generation’s Future

· Leave a Comment

Americans have as little optimism as they have had at any time in nearly three decades about young people’s chances of having greater material success in life than their parents. In all, 42% of U.S. adults think it is very (13%) or somewhat (29%) likely that today’s youth “will have a better living standard, better homes, a better education and so on.” This marks an 18-percentage-point drop since June 2019 and is statistically tied with the previous low in 2011. …

The decline in Americans’ outlook for young people’s lives since 2019 reflects a steep drop in optimism among Republicans and independents who lean Republican. At the same time, Democrats’ and Democratic leaners’ optimism hasn’t changed. CONTINUED

Megan Brenan, Gallup

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack

There are a ton of midterm election polls. Here’s a guide for how to read them.

· Leave a Comment

Pre-election polls came in for a drubbing following the 2020 election after underestimating former president Donald Trump’s vote margin by about five percentage points, the highest error in at least 20 years according to the American Association for Public Opinion Research.

One possible cause of 2020 errors was something the experts called nonresponse bias, with Democrats participating in polls at higher rates than Republicans. Many polls have attempted to measure and correct for partisan nonresponse, but these adjustments have been far from perfect, and it will take time to know how effective they are in reducing error over the long run.

The accuracy of 2022 polls won’t be clear until votes are counted on Nov. 8. But even imprecise polls can provide useful information about how and why voters are making their decisions this fall. Here is a guide on how to get the most out of pre-midterm 2022 polls: CONTINUED

Scott Clement, Washington Post

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack

Biden Job Approval Back Down to 40%

· Leave a Comment

President Joe Biden’s job approval rating is 40%, a step down from the 44% measured in August but still above his term-low 38% from July. In all other months in 2022, his approval rating has been in the 40% to 42% range. The Oct. 3-20 survey finds 56% of Americans disapproving of Biden’s performance, unchanged from September and midway between his highest (59% in July) and lowest (53% in August) disapproval scores this year. …

Biden averaged a 42% job approval rating during his seventh quarter in office, which spanned July 20 through Oct. 19. That average is similar to what most other elected presidents dating back to Jimmy Carter received during their seventh quarters in office. CONTINUED

Jeffrey M. Jones, Gallup

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack