CBS News Battleground Tracker: Shapiro maintains lead against Mastriano in race for Pennsylvania governor

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Democrat Josh Shapiro is ahead by nine points over Republican Doug Mastriano in the race for Pennsylvania governor. Shapiro led by 11 points last month.

Shapiro is helped by higher personal favorable ratings, combined with the perception that he’s more mainstream in his views than Mastriano. CONTINUED

Jennifer De Pinto & Fred Backus, CBS News

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The House: GOP Hits 218 in Ratings as Battle Rages Across Big Playing Field

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Key Points
• We now rate 218 House seats — the magic number for winning a majority — as at least Leans Republican in our House ratings.
• A large number of races remain close and competitive. The danger for Democrats is that these races end up breaking disproportionately to the Republicans.
• 4 Toss-ups move to Leans Republican this week.
• After these changes, 218 seats at least Lean Republican, while 195 at least Lean Democratic, and there are 22 Toss-ups. Splitting the Toss-ups evenly, 11-11, would give Republicans 229 seats, or a net gain of 16.
• We suspect the Republicans will do better than just a split in the Toss-ups, so our updated forecast is a GOP gain in the high teens or low 20s. CONTINUED

Kyle Kondik, Sabato’s Crystal Ball

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North Carolina: Budd Edges Beasley Among Definite Voters in Senate Race

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In the race for U.S. Senate in North Carolina, Democrat Cheri Beasley and Republican Ted Budd are tied among registered voters in the state. But, among those definitely planning to vote, Budd has a narrow lead over Beasley. …

President Joe Biden’s job approval rating is upside down in North Carolina. 37% of residents approve of how he is performing in office while 56% disapprove. Residents are more than twice as likely to strongly disapprove (43%) of how Biden is doing his job than to strongly approve (17%). CONTINUED

Marist Institute for Public Opinion

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Election Beat 2022: Will turnout, swing voters or sheer luck decide the midterms?

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The U.S. midterm election campaign has been going on for months, with upwards of $5 billion having been spent to sway the vote. All that spending has not been wasted, but it will account for far less than more persistent factors in determining the outcome of the midterms.

One factor extends back two decades, the time at which wide swings in voter support disappeared during elections. It’s the story of party polarization, which began gradually in the 1980s and was firmly in place by the early 2000s. It was marked by a widening of the partisan gap between Democrats and Republicans, but also a strengthening of partisanship and antipathy toward the opposing party.

The hostility that many partisans have for the other party is a larger driver of the vote than might be assumed. CONTINUED

Thomas E. Patterson, Journalist’s Resource, Harvard Kennedy School

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Texas: Inflation worries voters; Republican candidates most favored

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Republican Governor Greg Abbott leads Beto O’Rourke in the Texas governors’ race by more than four points, even though the Democrat has more support among Latinos and Blacks.

The increase in the cost of living dominates the concerns of registered voters in Texas for the November 8 elections and is emerging as a decisive factor, according to a survey by Univision News and the Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs of the University of Texas.

Half of the 1,400 respondents – including Hispanics, Whites and African-Americans – considered inflation to be the biggest problem facing the administration and the new Congress that will emerge from the elections to be held in two weeks time. CONTINUED

José Fernando López, Sergio Garcia-Rios, et al, Univision News

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Nevada: Latinos could tip the scales in senatorial and gubernatorial races

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In Nevada, a close contest could determine the balance of power in the U.S. Senate for the second half of Joe Biden’s presidential term. The outcome of the election between the current Democratic Senator, Catherine Cortez Masto, and Republican Adam Laxalt, a candidate endorsed by former President Donald Trump, could be decided by Latino voters, according to a Univision News poll.

Cortez Masto is in a statistical dead heat, with a lead of just two points over Laxalt that falls within the poll’s margin of error (3.1%). That lead is due in large part to Latino registered voters in the state, 60% of whom favor the Democrat with only 27% backing the Republican. White voters, who are also included among the 1,000 surveyed, give Laxalt an edge by a 16-point margin: 51% – 35%. CONTINUED

José Fernando López, Sergio Garcia-Rios, et al, Univision News

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