Ipsos Quick Take: The Midterm Elections

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It is not an understatement to say that we have all experienced unprecedented change in the last two years. Think of it: waves of hope and grief as the U.S. struggled to get the COVID pandemic under control, historic levels of inflation, the overturn of Roe v. Wade, and with that, the federal right to abortion, and the results of a presidential election questioned, contested, and violently fought against, to name just a few changes.

The midterm elections, the two-year mark into a president’s tenure in office, is a time where the voting public can react to these events and the party in power. Even so, very few Americans who are eligible to vote end up casting a ballot. What does that do to the politics of these races and their potential outcomes?

Ipsos forecasts narrow Republican gains in the midterms. Republicans are likely to win the House of Representatives by a small number of seats, while the Senate and the most competitive gubernatorial elections could go either way. CONTINUED

Clifford Young, Chris Jackson, et al, Ipsos

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The Senate: Race for Majority Remains a Toss-up as 2024 Looms

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Key Points
• It will take some time to assess any possible fallout from the Pennsylvania Senate debate on Tuesday night. Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D-PA) very clearly struggled.
• Early voting has begun in our pair of Senate Toss-ups, Georgia and Nevada, with inconclusive signals.
• Democrats should be more worried about the races we have rated Leans Democratic than Republicans should be worried about those that we have rated Leans Republican.
• As the 2022 battle for the Senate winds down, it is worth noting the 2024 Senate map, which gives the Republicans many opportunities to play offense and Democrats hardly any. CONTINUED

J. Miles Coleman, Sabato’s Crystal Ball

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45% of Americans Say U.S. Should Be a ‘Christian Nation’

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Growing numbers of religious and political leaders are embracing the “Christian nationalist” label, and some dispute the idea that the country’s founders wanted a separation of church and state. On the other side of the debate, however, many Americans – including the leaders of many Christian churches – have pushed back against Christian nationalism, calling it a “danger” to the country.

Most U.S. adults believe America’s founders intended the country to be a Christian nation, and many say they think it should be a Christian nation today, according to a new Pew Research Center survey designed to explore Americans’ views on the topic. But the survey also finds widely differing opinions about what it means to be a “Christian nation” and to support “Christian nationalism.” …

At the same time, however, people who believe the U.S. should be a Christian nation are far more inclined than those who think it should not be a Christian nation to favor officially declaring Christianity to be the nation’s religion, to support government advocacy of Christian values, and to say the government should stop enforcing separation of church and state.

Furthermore, the new survey finds that nearly eight-in-ten people who say the U.S. should be a Christian nation also say the Bible should have at least some influence on U.S. laws, including slightly more than half (54%) who say that when the Bible conflicts with the will of the people, the Bible should prevail. CONTINUED

Pew Research Center

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Why Pennsylvania’s race could determine who wins the Senate

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Tell me who wins the Pennsylvania Senate race, and I’ll probably be able to tell you who controls the Senate next year.

Such a declarative statement may seem like hyperbole, but the stakes after Tuesday’s debate in Pennsylvania – which represents Democrats’ best chance of picking up a Republican seat – are sky high. And while we don’t know how voters will ultimately view what they saw (or heard in the aftermath) of the televised event, neither candidate has much room for error.

Republican Mehmet Oz had been closing in on Democrat John Fetterman, according to an average of polls. Fetterman sported a seven point advantage on September 1. By debate eve, the lead was down to two points. CONTINUED

Harry Enten, CNN

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Health of Democracy and Rising Costs Are Leading Midterm Voter Concerns

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As the midterm elections near, a new national survey released today by Public Religion Research Institute (PRRI) shows a society divided between moving toward a more inclusive democracy and turning back the clock to the 1950s, as well as grave concerns about the health of our democracy.

PRRI’s comprehensive 13th annual American Values Survey, released in partnership with the Brookings Institution, examines the dissatisfied state of American public opinion regarding the direction of the country and illuminates the partisan and cultural divides on midterm election priorities, abortion, immigration, education, gender identity, and LGBTQ rights. …

Among Americans who plan to vote in this year’s midterm elections, the issues most critical to them are the health of our democracy (57%) and the increasing costs of housing (57%) and everyday expenses (57%). However, the parties have very different ideas of what safeguarding our democracy means. CONTINUED

Public Religion Research Institute

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Fundamentals Favor Republicans

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For much of this cycle, the question has been whether Democrats would be able to defy the traditional midterm fundamentals and make the 2022 election a ‘choice’ instead of a ‘referendum’ on the president and his party. …

But, with less than two weeks until Election Day, it looks as if the fundamentals — an unpopular president, deep frustration with the status quo, and stubborn inflation — are ultimately going to define this midterm.

For Democrats, voter opinions about the economy are the most challenging to overcome. Not only are voters expressing frustration and pessimism with the state of the economy, but they give Biden low marks on his handling of the issue and see Republicans as better able to tackle inflation. CONTINUED

Amy Walter, Cook Political Report with Amy Walter

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