Record-High 56% in U.S. Perceive Local Crime Has Increased

· Leave a Comment

Americans are more likely now than at any time over the past five decades to say there is more crime in their local area than there was a year ago. The 56% of U.S. adults who report an increase in crime where they live marks a five-percentage-point uptick since last year and is the highest by two points in Gallup’s trend dating back to 1972.

Public perceptions of an increase in crime at the national level have also edged up since last year, as 78% say there is now more crime in the U.S. This is tied with the 2020 measure. The record high was 89% in 1992, when crime rates soared in the U.S. …

Currently, 73% of Republicans say crime in their area has risen, while 51% of independents and 42% of Democrats say the same. CONTINUED

Megan Brenan, Gallup

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack

Annenberg Debuts Science and Public Health Knowledge Monitor

· Leave a Comment

The Annenberg Public Policy Center of the University of Pennsylvania is launching a science and health knowledge monitor comprising quarterly survey reports to track national levels of health knowledge and misinformation over time.

Building on the Annenberg Science Knowledge (ASK) surveys which since 2016 have been focused on health knowledge and misinformation about topics such as the Zika virus, measles, and Covid-19 and vaccination against it, the policy center’s Annenberg Science and Public Health Knowledge Monitor (ASAPH) will generate quarterly indices of knowledge about such vital health topics as maternal and reproductive health, vaccination, Covid-19, monkeypox, and indications and treatment of heat-related illness. It also will provide an ongoing measure of public confidence in the National Institutes of Health (NIH), Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), and Food and Drug Administration (FDA). …

The current report is based on eight waves of a nationally representative panel survey of U.S. adults, first empaneled in April 2021, that was conducted for APPC by SSRS, an independent market research company. CONTINUED

Annenberg Public Policy Center, University of Pennsylvania

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack

The 2022 Race for the House, in Four Districts, and Four Polls

· Leave a Comment

President Biden is unpopular everywhere. Economic concerns are mounting. Abortion rights are popular but social issues are more often secondary.

A new series of House polls by The New York Times and Siena College across four archetypal swing districts offers fresh evidence that Republicans are poised to retake Congress this fall as the party dominated among voters who care most about the economy.

Democrats continue to show resilience in places where abortion is still high on the minds of voters, and where popular incumbents are on the ballot. CONTINUED

Shane Goldmacher & Nate Cohn, New York Times

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack

Democrats are haunted by inflation

· Leave a Comment

We’re less than two weeks out from the congressional elections, and suddenly Democrats have discovered that their top issues for the past few months — democracy, abortion and their “historic legislative accomplishments” — are not the top issues for most voters. …

Despite the fact that Democrats knew their “recovery” plans were likely to increase inflation, they have spent the past few months promoting a base-driven national message that argued, “Donald Trump and MAGA Republicans are a threat to democracy, while Democrats will protect a woman’s right to an abortion and birth control and lower prescription drugs to help with inflation.”

In the latest “Winning the Issues” survey (Oct. 17-19, 1,300 registered voters), we tested that exact generic message against a Republican message focused on the economy and energy costs and found the GOP message outdid the Democrats’ by 9 points overall, 48 percent to 39 percent, and by 10 points with independents, 41 percent to 31 percent. CONTINUED

David Winston (Winston Group), Roll Call

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack

Harvard Youth Poll: Fall 2022

· Leave a Comment

A national poll released today by the Institute of Politics at Harvard Kennedy School indicates that 40% of 18-to-29-year-olds state that they will “definitely” vote in the November 8 midterm elections, on track to match or potentially exceed the record-breaking 2018 youth turnout in a midterm election. Young voters prefer Democratic control of Congress 57% to 31% (up five points for Democrats since spring), but 12% remain undecided.

President Biden’s job approval has dropped again to 39% among young Americans, down from 41% in the IOP Spring 2022 poll and down 20 percentage points since our first spring poll after President Biden took office. There is a 20-point job approval gap among those who report that they follow the news closely (48% approve) vs. those who do not follow the news (28%). CONTINUED

Institute of Politics, Harvard Kennedy School

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack

Spy agencies pulled 2020 vote study amid internal dissent

· Leave a Comment

As U.S. spy agencies ramped up their work to catch foreign meddling in this year’s election, a team of CIA experts studied lessons learned from the contentious 2020 vote. Unexpectedly, their report sparked a controversy within parts of the intelligence community.

In a rare move, their study was withdrawn shortly after it was issued in the spring after rank-and-file officers protested that it failed to address the allegations of politics seeping into intelligence that arose in the 2020 election and that remain unresolved for some today. CONTINUED

Nomaan Merchant, Associated Press

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack