Young voters, key to Democratic midterm success, show lower enthusiasm than in 2018

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The 2022 elections are a little more than a week away and if Democrats are going to defy the usual pattern of midterms (big losses for the party in power), they are going to need some parts of the electorate to turn out more than expected.

One group near the top of that list is younger voters, those under the age of 35. It’s sometimes a struggle to turn out those voters in non-presidential years, but for Democrats, they are a crucial bloc.

The latest NBC News poll shows why those voters matter so much. Of all the age cohorts they lean the most Democratic — and it’s not close. CONTINUED

Dante Chinni, NBC News

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Republicans head into final week with lead in seats, voters feel things are “out of control”

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The election is already underway; millions have voted, and tens of millions more will before Nov. 8. Amid that, eight in 10 likely voters describe things in the country today as “out of control,” as opposed to “under control.”

That doesn’t bode well for the party in power: Republicans are winning those who say “out of control” right now by more than 20 points, though they’re often the ones feeling that way to begin with.

So where do things stand? Republicans today remain in good position to win a majority of seats in the House. However, voters’ current intentions suggest anything from a sizable GOP majority to a bare Democratic one possible. CONTINUED

CBS News

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Challenges in Moving Toward a More Inclusive Democracy: Findings from the 2022 American Values Survey

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PRRI’s comprehensive 13th annual American Values Survey, released in partnership with the Brookings Institution, examines the dissatisfied state of American public opinion regarding the direction of the country and illuminates the partisan and cultural divides on midterm election priorities, abortion, immigration, education, gender identity, and LGBTQ rights.

Public Religion Research Institute and the Brookings Institution

See also: 2022 American Values Survey

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These Political Scientists Surveyed 500,000 Voters. Here Are Their Unnerving Conclusions.

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John Sides and Lynn Vavreck share what they’ve learned for the midterms and beyond.

The Ezra Klein Show podcast

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The midterms, prophecy, and blood sacrifice

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I am just back from two weeks in Greece. A visit to the cradle of democracy and contemplation of events Before the Common Era provides perspective. Besides, Greece is beautiful and retired people get to travel in October. But so much back here is messier now than when I left.

Despite all the polls, analytics, and forecasts, I think it is unwise to be too confident that any of us know what will happen in 11 days. A lot is close; in the last few election cycles, close polling has presaged a wave in one direction or the other, and the trend the last couple weeks has not been good for the Democrats. But the past is an imperfect predictor of the future, or even of the present. I am concerned, also, that such prophecies become self-fulfilling, creating rather than measuring momentum. …

So, having learned from the oracle at Delphi how to be properly ambiguous my prediction is JUSTICE WILL PREVAIL NOT LOSE GROUND NOW. The meaning of that depends on how you see justice and whether you place the comma before or after the word “not.” Thus it’s correct – if interpreted properly. CONTINUED

Diane Feldman, View from the Pearl

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The Double-Negative Election

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This has become the double-negative election.

Most Americans consistently say in polls that they believe that President Joe Biden and congressional Democrats have mismanaged crime, the border, and, above all, the economy and inflation. But roughly as many Americans say that they view the modern Republican Party as a threat to their rights, their values, or to democracy itself.

Based on Biden’s first two years in office, surveys show that most Americans are reluctant to continue following the policy path he has laid out. But polls also show no enthusiasm for returning to the programs, priorities, and daily chaos of Donald Trump’s presidency. …

It remains likely that two negatives will still yield a positive result for Republicans. Most voters with little faith in both sides may ultimately decide simply to give a chance to the party that’s not in charge now, Jay Campbell, a Democratic pollster who helps conduct the CNBC survey, told me. That would provide a late boost to the GOP, particularly in House races, where the individual candidates are less well known. But even if that dynamic develops, Campbell said, the Democrats’ ability to hold so much of their coalition over concerns about the broader Republican agenda has reduced the odds that the GOP can generate the kind of decisive midterm gains enjoyed by Democrats in 2018 and 2006, or Republicans in 2010 and 1994. CONTINUED

Ronald Brownstein, The Atlantic

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