Two Years After Election Turmoil, GOP Voters Remain Skeptical on Elections, Vote Counts

· Leave a Comment

Two years ago, shortly before the 2020 presidential election, Republicans’ trust in the nation’s election system had eroded considerably. Today, with the midterm elections approaching, widespread GOP distrust persists – and in some cases has deepened.

A majority of registered voters who support Republican candidates for Congress in their districts (56%) say they think the midterm elections in the U.S. will be administered very or somewhat well, with just 11% saying they will be run very well. That represents a modest increase from 2020, when 50% of Republican voters expected the presidential election to be run well (9% very well). But it is much lower than the 87% of GOP voters who said this in October 2018, shortly before the last midterm election.

Democratic voters, by contrast, have become more confident that elections will be administered well. CONTINUED

Pew Research Center

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack

Elections aren’t only about ‘the economy, stupid’ — and never were

· Leave a Comment

The economy is not the singular, overriding factor that decides American elections — and it really never was. It’s not just “the economy, stupid.” …

Even before most Americans have voted, there is already commentary that Democrats have lost this year’s elections because the party has focused too much on abortion and not enough on economics and inflation, particularly high gas prices.

I don’t buy it. There are five main reasons to be skeptical of this economic-centered perspective: CONTINUED

Perry Bacon Jr., Washington Post

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack

Senate Control Hinges on Neck-and-Neck Races, Times/Siena Poll Finds

· Leave a Comment

Control of the Senate rests on a knife’s edge, according to new polls by The New York Times and Siena College, with Republican challengers in Nevada and Georgia neck-and-neck with Democratic incumbents, and the Democratic candidate in Pennsylvania clinging to what appears to be a tenuous advantage.

The bright spot for Democrats in the four key states polled was in Arizona, where Senator Mark Kelly is holding a small but steady lead over his Republican challenger, Blake Masters.

The results indicate a deeply volatile and unpredictable Senate contest: More people across three of the states surveyed said they wanted Republicans to gain control of the Senate, but they preferred the individual Democratic candidates in their states — a sign that Republicans may be hampered by the shortcomings of their nominees. CONTINUED

Lisa Lerer & Ruth Igielnik, New York Times

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack

Brazil’s polls were off during the first round. Now the right wants to criminalize them.

· Leave a Comment

In the first round of Brazil’s closely watched elections this month, the polls significantly underestimated the support for President Jair Bolsonaro and other conservative candidates across the country. Many on the right were furious, criticizing the pollsters as out of touch with the Brazilian electorate.

Now, at the urging of Mr. Bolsonaro, some of Brazil’s leaders are trying to make it a crime to incorrectly forecast an election. Brazil’s House of Representatives has fast-tracked a bill that would criminalize publishing a poll that is later shown to fall outside its margin of error. The House, which is controlled by Mr. Bolsonaro’s allies, is expected to vote and pass the measure in the coming days. CONTINUED

André Spigariol & Jack Nicas, New York Times

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack

Three in five registered voters believe abortion should be legal

· Leave a Comment

About three in five registered voters believe abortion should be legal in all or most cases, and a plurality would be more likely to support a candidate for elected office who favors keeping abortion legal and available, according to a new ABC News/Ipsos poll. However, the economy and inflation remain the most important issues—half of registered voters cite one of these issues—in determining one’s vote for Congress next month. According to last week’s ABC News/Ipsos poll, Republicans hold an advantage over Democrats on these issues in the upcoming election. CONTINUED

Mallory Newall & Charlie Rollason, Ipsos

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack

Economy and inflation top public’s agenda going into midterm elections

· Leave a Comment

About half of Americans say either the economy or inflation is the most important issue in their vote for Congress, making pocketbook issues by far the most dominant in the run up to the midterm elections, according to a new ABC News/Ipsos poll.

Taken individually, 26% identify the economy as their single most important issue determining their vote while 23% cite inflation. Nearly three out of four Republicans point to the two economic concerns as a priority, compared to only 29% of Democrats per the ABC News/Ipsos poll conducted using Ipsos’ KnowledgePanel. CONTINUED

Brittany Shepherd, ABC News

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack