In Close, Crucial Governor’s Races, Poll Finds Sharp Split on Elections

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Republicans are running dead even or slightly ahead in races for governor that could change the future of elections in Arizona and end Democrats’ hold on Nevada, according to new polling of four key battleground states from The New York Times and Siena College. …

In all four states, the winners of next Tuesday’s elections will have substantial influence over an array of policies, including abortion rights and criminal justice. While the fate of elections and voting may carry the most import, voters indicated that they were most concerned about the economy. …

The mixed polling results in the four states — three of which backed Mr. Trump in 2016 and flipped to Joseph R. Biden Jr. in 2020 — reflect how candidates for governor often defy national political trends, with some voters separating contenders for state office from those for the U.S. Senate and House. CONTINUED

Reid J. Epstein & Ruth Igielnik, New York Times

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Control of the Senate is coming down to this hidden dynamic

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Control of the US Senate will be decided next week in cross-pressured states where most voters disapprove of President Joe Biden’s performance but also express unfavorable views about their state’s Republican Senate nominee.

Public polls show Biden’s job approval rating is consistently below 50%, and often well below that, in all the states most likely to determine the Senate majority – even though they’re almost all states he carried in 2020. Over the past three decades, it has become increasingly rare for Senate candidates on either side to win election in states where voters hold such negative views of a president from their own party.

In this stormy sea, the biggest lifeline still available for Democrats is the large number of voters in those battleground states who view the Republican Senate candidates as extreme, unqualified, or both. CONTINUED

Ronald Brownstein, CNN

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American Democracy on the Eve of the 2022 Midterms

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Two years ago, America’s democracy was tested when Donald Trump refused to concede Joe Biden’s presidential win, a violent mob stormed the Capitol to try to prevent the certification of Biden’s victory, and a majority of congressional Republicans, including two-thirds of House members, voted against certifying the result. Public confidence in democratic institutions dropped immediately afterward among Republicans and did not rebound in 2021. As the country approaches its first national elections since the failed effort to overturn the 2020 election and the January 6 insurrection, numerous tallies show that substantial numbers of Republican candidates for federal or statewide office deny the legitimacy of the 2020 election, including nominees for Secretary of State in states like Arizona and Nevada that could decide the 2024 election.

In this context, we fielded parallel public and expert surveys to assess the status of U.S. democracy. These surveys were conducted October 5–14 among 682 political scientists and a representative sample of 2,778 Americans. CONTINUED

Bright Line Watch

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Senate control is likely to come down to these four states

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You know Election Day is closing in when the kids are trick-or-treating. And with the costumes out, the picture for the Senate is clearer than ever.

It is pretty clear from the polling that control of the Senate will likely come down to four races: Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania.

The math is simple. Democrats need to win three of these four races to maintain control of the Senate. For Republicans, it’s a slightly easier climb as they need to win only two of these four races.

But despite the ease of the equation, solving it is anything but easy. CONTINUED

Harry Enten, CNN

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One week to go: What history tells us about how the House races are shaping up

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Historical analysis cannot tell us what will happen next, but it can provide a rough baseline for our expectations. With one week to go before votes are cast, the 2022 midterm elections are shaping up to be in line with most of the midterms conducted two years after the incumbent president’s first national victory, and the results seem likely to be within the benchmark established during the past four decades.

During this period, there have been four midterms conducted under normal circumstances and two in contexts shaped by extraordinary but transitory factors. CONTINUED

William A. Galston, Brookings Institution

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Economy Is Top Election Issue; Abortion and Crime Next

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Among the policy issues being debated and discussed this election year, the economy leads in importance to Americans. Nearly half of U.S. registered voters, 49%, say the economy will be extremely important to their vote for Congress. But abortion and crime are nearly as prominent; 42% and 40% of voters, respectively, say each of these is extremely important. CONTINUED

Lydia Saad, Gallup

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