Why voters cast ballots that don’t seem logical from the D.C. perspective

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… The debate over what makes voters choose a side this year has mostly been between economics and values, specifically between inflation and abortion. Arguments for a good Republican year point to the fact that most surveys say economics is the top issue for voters. Arguments that favor Democrats point to the fact that it’s usually only about 20-something percent who choose the economy or inflation as their top issue, and that among Democrats issues like abortion fare better.

This discussion is incredibly reductive and not representative of how voters think—people do care about multiple issues at the same time. How they answer a survey question is subject to what is top-of-mind that particular day, even that particular moment. CONTINUED

Natalie Jackson, National Journal

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GOP Has Political Winds at Their Back in 2022

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The political environment for the 2022 midterm elections should work to the benefit of the Republican Party, with all national mood indicators similar to, if not worse than, what they have been in other years when the incumbent party fared poorly in midterms.

Heading into Election Day, 40% of Americans approve of the job Joe Biden is doing as president, 17% are satisfied with the way things are going in the U.S., 49% describe the health of the economy as poor (compared with 14% saying it is excellent or good), and 21% approve of the job the Democratically led Congress is doing.

Current ratings of the U.S. economy and national satisfaction are the lowest Gallup has measured at the time of a midterm election over the life of these polling trends, starting in 1994 and 1982, respectively. Congressional and presidential job approval are near their historical low marks. CONTINUED

Jeffrey M. Jones & Lydia Saad, Gallup

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Gas prices could decide the midterms. Here’s why

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Midterm election results may come down to the price of a gallon of gas.

Roughly half of Americans say either the economy or inflation is the most important issue in their vote for Congress, making bread-and-butter financial issues by far the most dominant in the lead-up to the midterm elections, according to an ABC News/Ipsos poll released on Sunday.

Meanwhile, research has established a relationship between gas prices and presidential approval ratings that reaches back decades, despite the limited control that presidents exert over fuel costs, experts told ABC News. Presidential approval ratings, in turn, mark a key indicator of midterm success or failure for the party in control of the White House, they said. CONTINUED

Max Zahn, ABC News

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Fox News Poll: Arizona races tighten as support for Republican candidates increases

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With a week until Election Day, the latest Fox News poll finds close contests in the Grand Canyon State’s Senate and governor’s races, although more Republicans than Democrats are enthusiastic about heading to the ballot box.

The survey of Arizona registered voters, released Tuesday, shows Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly with a 2-point edge over Republican challenger Blake Masters (47% vs. 45%). That’s within the margin of error. …

The governor’s race also sees competitive numbers with 46% supporting Democrat Katie Hobbs and 47% favoring Republican Kari Lake. CONTINUED

Victoria Balara, Fox News

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Fox News Poll: Johnson holds edge over Barnes in Wisconsin Senate race

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President Biden won Wisconsin by less than one percentage point in 2020, and the state remains closely divided. Both Democratic Gov. Tony Evers and Republican Sen. Ron Johnson are in tough fights to keep their jobs, according to a new Fox News survey of Wisconsin voters.

In the Senate race, Democrat Mandela Barnes trails Johnson by three percentage points (45%-48%). That’s mostly unchanged from last month, while it was Barnes who was ahead by four points in August.

Forty-nine percent of Badger State voters approve of the job Evers is doing as governor. Yet only 90% of those who approve support his re-election. That leads to a close governor’s contest, with 46% favoring Evers, while 47% go for Republican challenger Tim Michels. CONTINUED

Dana Blanton, Fox News

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4 reasons to be skeptical about election polling

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Pollsters should worry that their profession might soon be regarded as more like astrology than political science.

Reasons to take polls with a large grain of salt abound. First, the nagging sense that pollsters are “missing” MAGA voters remains, as was the case during both the 2016 and 2020 elections. In both cycles, pollsters essentially got the Democratic share of the vote right but missed many voters who supported Donald Trump. …

In 2020, polls gave a false sense of security for many House and Senate Democratic candidates. But that polling failure did not occur in 2018, when Trump was not on the ballot. So is the worry of missing Republican voters valid this time around? It’s a source of serious debate. CONTINUED

Jennifer Rubin, Washington Post

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