CNN Polls on key Senate races find tight contest in Wisconsin and a narrow Democratic edge in Pennsylvania

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Across two states with Republican-held Senate seats that could prove pivotal to control of the chamber in this fall’s elections, one incumbent faces an evenly divided electorate while the Democrat holds a narrow edge in the other, according to new CNN polls conducted by SSRS.

In Wisconsin, the survey shows no clear leader, with 50% of likely voters behind Republican Sen. Ron Johnson and 49% backing his Democratic challenger, state Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes.

In the race for retiring Republican Sen. Pat Toomey’s seat in Pennsylvania, Democratic state Lt. Gov. John Fetterman stands at 51% support to Republican candidate Mehmet Oz’s 45% support among likely voters, an advantage narrowly outside of the survey’s margin of error. CONTINUED

Jennifer Agiesta, CNN

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CNN Polls show Democrats are ahead in races for governor in Michigan and Pennsylvania, with no clear leader in Wisconsin

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The Wisconsin race for governor has no clear leader, while Democratic gubernatorial candidates hold the edge in Michigan and Pennsylvania, according to new CNN polls conducted by SSRS in the three key states. …

Across the three states, issues surrounding the economy and inflation remain the top concern for the widest swath of voters, with abortion and issues of voting rights and election integrity coming second and third on the list. …

A 54% majority of likely voters in Michigan say they back Proposal 3, which would amend the Michigan state constitution to establish a new individual right to reproductive freedom, including the right to have an abortion; 45% are opposed. CONTINUED

Ariel Edwards-Levy, CNN

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Pollsters Try to Learn From Mistakes of 2016 and 2020 Elections

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Pollsters this year are taking a range of steps to try to improve the accuracy of their surveys, after significantly understating support for Donald Trump and other GOP candidates in the past two presidential elections. Strategists and pollsters in both parties are worried about whether the steps will work. …

One problem for pollsters as they try to improve their accuracy is that they haven’t settled on the root cause of the errors that left many Americans surprised by Mr. Trump’s victory in 2016 and his closer-than-expected finish in 2020, which the professional association of public opinion researchers determined was the biggest polling miss in 40 years.

Many pollsters and researchers say that a certain type of Republican is declining to take their surveys—the voters most committed to backing Mr. Trump and his style of politics. Others say that these voters are, in fact, answering surveys and are present in the pollsters’ data, but that outdated assumptions about the composition of the nation’s electorate means that they are underrepresented in the results. Pollsters are experimenting with ways to address both problems. CONTINUED

Aaron Zitner, Wall Street Journal

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Ohio: 1 point separates J.D. Vance, Tim Ryan in Senate Race

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Only one point separates Republican J.D. Vance and Democrat Tim Ryan in the race for U.S. Senate in Ohio among registered voters. The two are tied among those who say they will definitely vote in November’s election. The Republicans are well-positioned, though, to retain the Ohio statehouse. Republican Governor Mike DeWine leads his Democratic challenger Nan Whaley by 13 points among Ohio registered voters. DeWine retains his advantage over Whaley among those who say they will definitely vote in November. CONTINUED

Marist Institute for Public Opinion

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Why Am I Seeing That Political Ad? Check Your ‘Trump Resistance’ Score.

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… In the run-up to the midterm elections next month, campaigns are tapping a host of different scores and using them to create castes of their most desirable voters. There are “gun owner,” “pro-choice” and “Trump 2024” scores, which cover everyday politics. There are also voter rankings on hot-button issues — a “racial resentment” score, for example, and a “trans athletes should not participate” score. There’s even a “U.F.O.s distrust government” score.

Campaign and media consultants say such political-issue scores make it easier for candidates to surgically target messages to, and mobilize, the most receptive voters. …

But the same nano-targeting that may help mobilize some people to vote could also disenfranchise others as well as exacerbate political polarization, political researchers say. CONTINUED

Natasha Singer, New York Times

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The gory details about how modern polling really works

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This week, I reported a story for The Economist that uncovered some very troubling details about pre-election polls being published by Center Street PAC, a new and self-described “non-partisan” super PAC that has pledged support for Democrats in key Senate contests. …

The upshot to this narrow story about Center Street is that they have made some questionable methodological decisions that conveniently push almost all of their numbers in the Democratic direction. One explanation is that they do not know any better; Their pollster is the head of an investment firm and has never done this type of work before. Another runs deeper. CONTINUED

G. Elliott Morris, Democracy by the Numbers

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