Republicans retain advantage over Democrats on key issues of the economy, crime

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More Americans, as well as registered voters, trust the Republican Party over the Democratic Party when it comes to handling the economy, crime, inflation, and gas prices, according to a new ABC News/Ipsos poll. Republicans’ advantages on these issues have not changed from ABC News/Ipsos polling two months ago. On the other hand, slightly more Americans now trust the Democratic Party when it comes to handling abortion – an eight percentage point change from August. Among registered voters, nearly half say their vote in November will be indicative of how they feel about President Joe Biden (30%) or former President Donald Trump (19%), while a similar number say the midterms aren’t about either man. CONTINUED

Mallory Newall & Haley Gullquist, Ipsos

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GOP opens edge on economy, crime ahead of midterms

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Americans trust that Republicans would do a better job on a key set of issues, with across-the-board, double-digit edges on inflation, the economy, gas prices and crime, according to a new ABC News/Ipsos poll.

Inflation sees one of the larger gulfs – with 36% of Americans trusting the GOP and 21% trusting Democrats. Similar gaps exist around gas prices, with 36% of Americans trusting Republicans and 22% trusting Democrats, the poll shows.

Broadly considering the state of the economy, 36% of Americans trust Republicans to do a better job while 24% trust Democrats – a potentially grim tell for the left, who currently cling to razor-thin majorities in the House and Senate. CONTINUED

Brittany Shepherd, ABC News

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‘Anger on their minds’: NBC News poll finds sky-high interest and polarization ahead of midterms

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Less than three weeks before Election Day, voter interest has now reached an all-time high for a midterm election, with a majority of registered voters saying that this election is “more important” to them than past midterms.

What’s more, some 80% of Democrats and Republicans believe the political opposition poses a threat that, if not stopped, will destroy America as we know it.

And two-thirds of reliable Democratic and Republican voters say they’d still support their party’s political candidate, even if that person had a moral failing that wasn’t consistent with their own values. CONTINUED

Mark Murray, NBC News

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Both parties think the other will destroy America, NBC News poll finds

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The 2022 midterm environment is full of a complicated set of issues. Talk to voters and you’ll hear about inflation and the economy, abortion, the January 6 insurrection and the continued presence of Donald Trump in politics. So what exactly are this year’s midterms about? The poll asked self-identified voters from both parties, “what is the most important issue facing the country,” and the answers show some clear divides.

For Democrats, the No. 1 issue is “threats to democracy.” Three in 10 self-described Democrats chose that answer, which likely reflects their concerns about supporters of former President Donald Trump and how some of them still refuse to acknowledge the legitimate results of the 2020 election.

Republicans see a different plate of topics. Their top issue, at 29%, is “jobs and the economy.” CONTINUED

Dante Chinni, NBC News

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Over 6 in 10 Americans favor leaving race out of college admissions, Post-Schar School poll finds

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More than 6 in 10 Americans support a ban on the consideration of race in college admissions, according to a Washington Post-Schar School poll, but an equally robust majority endorses programs to boost racial diversity on campuses.

The findings illuminate the turbulent crosscurrents of public opinion on affirmative action as the Supreme Court revisits the fraught subject barely six years after it upheld the limited use of race in admissions at the University of Texas. …

If the court’s conservative majority reverses decades of precedent and prohibits the consideration of race and ethnicity, the Post-Schar School poll conducted this month finds 63 percent of adults would support the change. At the same time, 64 percent say programs designed to increase racial diversity of students are a good thing. CONTINUED

Nick Anderson, Robert Barnes, Scott Clement & Emily Guskin, Washington Post

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The fundamentals and the midterm

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The current conventional wisdom is for the midterm to be somewhat better than average for the president’s party in the House. (I set aside the Senate here.) The fundamentals doubt that, as we’ll see.

The “fundamentals” provide a helpful baseline, even if “non-fundamentals” such as polling, candidate quality, unique issues, may modify that baseline. So let’s only look at historical relationships here. CONTINUED

Charles Franklin (Marquette Law School), PollsAndVotes

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