A Memo to Democrats

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The four of us have been around politics a long time. We have been a part of some of the Democratic Party’s biggest victories; we have seen some big losses. In the 2022 election, things are as close as we have ever seen them. But we are right on the edge of overcoming historical trends and other factors weighing us down, and winning a decisive victory.

What we have to do, though, is end on a strong economic argument. Democrats need to understand that we have a winning message on the economy and inflation. But rising costs will beat us if we avoid the issue. … If voters never hear ads from candidates mentioning rising costs; if the mail they receive never mentions it; if they only hear it touched on in stump speeches; if the answers to the inflation question in debates are mushy; voters are going to decide those Democratic candidates are not prioritizing the issue they are most focused on.

And our research shows that it’s important for voters to know that you are in touch with what they are facing economically, especially Gen Z and millennials, Blacks and Latinos, and blue-collar women, all of whom are the key swing voters in this campaign. CONTINUED

Patrick Gaspard, Stan Greenberg, Celinda Lake & Mike Lux, American Prospect

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Facts, Feelings and Rural Politics

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The hard-right turn of rural America has become a key factor in our nation’s troubled politics. Rural voters are a declining share of the electorate, but their turn to the MAGAfied Republican Party has been so sharp that, combined with the way our political system underweights urban voters, the radicalization of small towns and the countryside may determine the future course of American democracy — indeed, may lead to its demise. …

What’s causing this radicalization? Political scientists have found that rural Americans believe that they aren’t receiving their fair share of resources, that they are neglected by politicians and that they don’t receive enough respect. So it seems worth noting that the first two beliefs are demonstrably false — although I’m sure that anyone pointing this out will be denounced as another sneering member of the urban elite. CONTINUED

Paul Krugman, New York Times

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Voters in battleground states prefer Republican House candidates over Democrats by 6%, survey says

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Republicans and Democrats around the nation are statistically tied when it comes to which party voters prefer to control the House of Representatives — but Republicans have a 6-point lead in key battleground states, according to a Penn Program on Opinion Research and Election Studies/SurveyMonkey poll of over 100,000 likely voters.

Nationally, 51% said they would vote for the Democratic candidate if the election for House were being held today and 49% said they would vote for the Republican candidate.

But more concerning for Democrats — with just 18 days to go before the election — is that the Republican advantage grows to 6 points, 53% to 47%, among all likely voters who live in the battleground states of Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Ohio, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. CONTINUED

Marc Trussler, Stephanie Perry, Josh Clinton & John Lapinski, NBC News

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National UMass Amherst Poll Measures Voters’ Fear, Anger and Worries Approaching Midterm Elections

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As the nation approaches the 2022 midterm elections, American voters expressed fear, anger and a great deal of worry in a new national University of Massachusetts Amherst Poll, the results of which were released today.

Nearly three-quarters of Democratic voters (74%) and 65% of Republican voters said that they will be angry – and three-quarters of both party’s voters said they will be afraid – if the opposing party takes control of Congress, the poll of 1,000 respondents found.

“As each national election has increasingly been viewed by the public as a zero-sum affair, in which one party wins and another loses, and as candidates on both sides of the partisan divide tout each election as the ‘most important of our lifetimes,’ it is no shock that majorities of both Democratic and Republican voters express fear and anger if the opposing party takes control of the U.S. Congress,” says Tatishe Nteta, professor of political science at UMass Amherst and director of the poll. CONTINUED

University of Massachusetts Amherst

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U.S. Opinion and the Election: Guns, Immigration, Climate

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… The important fact about two of these problem areas — gun control and climate change — is the degree to which most Americans approve of the various proposed remedies for the situations. Americans favor most gun control proposals tested except outright banning of handgun possession. And Americans favor a wide spectrum of policies aimed at addressing human-caused climate change, particularly those relating to the development of alternative energy and controls on emissions from traditional energy sources.

Attitudes about immigration are more complex. Americans want illegal immigration controlled. Americans are also wary of increased legal immigration, more so than they have been in several years. At the same time, Americans favor policies for dealing with immigrants who are in the U.S. illegally that allow them a pathway to stay here. And Americans do not appear to endorse busing or flying such immigrants to other states.

These issues have varying priority for Americans, but none appears to be as important to Americans at this time as inflation and the economy. CONTINUED

Frank Newport, Gallup

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Why Republicans Are Winning Swing Voters

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After a summer of news that favored Democrats and with just two weeks until the midterms, a major new poll from The Times has found that swing voters are suddenly turning to the Republicans.

The Times’s Nate Cohn explains what is behind the trend and what it could mean for Election Day.

The Daily, New York Times

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