Nevada: Cortez Masto and Laxalt neck and neck in Senate race

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Another battleground state, another toss-up contest. In one of Republicans’ best pick-up opportunities, GOP challenger Adam Laxalt and Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto are neck and neck. It’s a nationalized race where voters are aware of the stakes: eight in 10 of each candidate’s supporters see their votes as helping their party win Senate control. …

Republicans have led on the issue of the economy and inflation in other Senate battleground contests, and we see that here: Laxalt has an advantage over Cortez Masto on voters who prioritize those issues, which are the top concerns in the state. CONTINUED

CBS News

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What’s Really Going On With the Crime Rate?

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Turn on a television in any state with a competitive Senate or gubernatorial race, and you’ll see that the criminal-justice reform agenda is under constant attack. …

These attacks assume that the changes in criminal-justice policies that some states and many cities have pursued over the past few years are undermining public safety and fueling higher crime rates. But an exhaustive new study released today by the Center for American Progress refutes that allegation. Conducted by a team of seven academic researchers, the study compares cities that have elected so-called progressive prosecutors with places whose district attorneys continue to pursue more traditional approaches.

Countering conventional wisdom, the study found that homicides over recent years increased less rapidly in cities with progressive prosecutors than in those with more traditional district attorneys. It also found no meaningful differences between cities with progressive or traditional DAs in the trends for larceny and robbery. CONTINUED

Ronald Brownstein, The Atlantic

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Why very high turnout is likely this midterm

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Eight years ago, interest in midterm elections hit rock bottom. Just 37% of the voting eligible population turned out to vote – the lowest since World War II. Few could have predicted that America would have the highest midterm turnout in the last century just four years later.

A look at the data in this cycle suggests that we’re far more likely to see a repeat of 2018 and its high turnout than 2014. Already, more than 4.8 million ballots have been cast this year across 36 states in the 2022 midterms, according to updated data from election officials, Edison Research and Catalist. CONTINUED

Harry Enten, CNN

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The Midterms May Come Down to the Last Gust of Political Wind

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One thing on which strategists in both parties agree is that next month’s elections will feature a very high turnout level, a continuation of the last two cycles: 2018 featured the largest midterm turnout in 104 years, 2020 the biggest presidential turnout in 120 years. In recent elections it’s become a cliché for partisans to talk about the importance of mobilizing their base, yet in neither of the past two elections have they had much to worry about. This midterm doesn’t figure to end the high-turnout trend. CONTINUED

Charlie Cook

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Biden’s job rating is similar to Trump’s but lower than that of other recent presidents

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Nearly two years into his presidency, Joe Biden’s job rating stands at 38% – identical to Donald Trump’s approval rating at a similar point in his presidency, but lower than those of some other recent presidents in the run-up to their first midterm election.

The trajectory of presidential job approval differs for each White House occupant. Biden began his presidency with majority approval: In March 2021, 54% of Americans approved of Biden’s job performance, and his rating rose to 59% a month later. But his popularity declined sharply last summer and has been in the low 40s or high 30s since then. CONTINUED

Amina Dunn, Pew Research Center

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Midterm Voting Intentions Are Divided, Economic Gloom Persists

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With less than three weeks to go until the midterm elections, registered voters’ preferences are nearly evenly divided: 41% say they favor the Democratic candidates in their districts, while a nearly identical percentage (40%) support Republican candidates; 18% are not sure how they will vote or favor candidates other than Republicans or Democrats. And those supporting GOP candidates are somewhat more engaged this election than their Democratic counterparts: They are more likely to have thought “a lot” about the election and to say the outcome “really matters.” CONTINUED

Pew Research Center

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