The headline in the Washington Post Metro section on Oct. 22 was clear: “Poll shows Luria, Kiggans in dead heat in final leg of crucial race.” …
My immediate take was that, based solely on the poll’s ballot test, Luria is an underdog and in deep trouble. That’s because at this point in the election cycle the incumbent’s percentage in the head-to-head ballot test has always been one of the most important indicators to me. …
In a campaign’s final weeks, I always want to know where the incumbent stands because that tells me a lot about the strength of the midterm dynamic — which favors the party not in the White House — and about the ability of a particular incumbent to swim against the current. CONTINUED
Stuart Rothenberg, Roll Call
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