The fierce political struggles erupting across the Sun Belt this summer over mask mandates and other public health precautions against Covid-19 point toward epic governors’ races next year that will test how much the political balance of power has changed in the rapidly growing states at the epicenter of the […] Read more »
How the political environment is moving toward Republicans
Republicans gained a seat in the Connecticut state Senate this week. They won a special election in a district that President Joe Biden won by more than 20 points in 2020. Any individual special election such as this one comes with its caveats, but the trend in special state elections […] Read more »
Redistricting in America, Part Five: The Interior West/Heartland
Key Points• For all of the focus on redistricting, the overall political environment matters for House elections too, and President Biden has shown some signs of weakness in recent weeks.• As we continue our redistricting series, we analyze several small-to-medium-sized states in the Interior West and Heartland.• One of the […] Read more »
‘Breaking point’: Why the red state/blue city conflict is peaking over masks
Political and population trends are colliding as the steadily escalating tension between red states and their blue cities across the Sun Belt is reaching a breaking point over the volatile issue of school masking. For more than a decade, GOP governors and Republican-controlled legislatures in states from Florida and Georgia […] Read more »
I don’t buy that the 2020 census is good news for Democrats: Nate Silver
538’s Nate Silver breaks down what the changing U.S. demographics revealed by the 2020 census means for redistricting. This Week, ABC News The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack Read more »
Census shows a more diverse, urban America
Last week was nerd Christmas for political data devotees. The U.S. Census released the latest batch of redistricting data from its 2020 headcount, including key measures on race, ethnicity and geography. And two key elements emerged out of the data drop: The country is growing more racially and ethnically diverse […] Read more »