… Republican strategists are increasingly worried that Trump is headed for defeat in November and that he may drag other Republicans down with him. Seven GOP operatives not directly associated with the President’s reelection campaign told CNN that Trump’s response to the pandemic and the subsequent economic fallout have significantly […] Read more »
Recent Polling in the Swing States Favors Biden
Key Points• Recent polling in 13 swing states shows a consistent advantage for Joe Biden over Donald Trump.• The recent 2020 polling results correlate much more strongly with the 2016 election results than with the final 2016 polling results.• This suggests that pollsters have adjusted their sampling and weighting procedures […] Read more »
How Accurate Are State Polls? And What Could That Mean For November?
Our latest recap of the accuracy of polling in American elections reinforced something we’ve been saying for a while: The polls are all right. In particular, polls of presidential general elections have historically been quite accurate. … However, it is not unusual for state polls to be less accurate than […] Read more »
Senate Republicans’ Spending Is Almost Entirely Defensive
Enough of the talk about the possibility of another split between electoral and popular votes for president, which would be the third in 20 years. Here’s a better challenge for 2020 election aficionados: First, if Republicans only hold onto one thing, is it more likely to be the White House […] Read more »
Memorial Day 2020: Presidential race still leaning Biden
More than two months ago, even before COVID-19 became all-consuming in our lives, I wrote a column arguing that the presidential race had changed from a toss-up/tilting Democratic to leaning Democratic. That significant change had nothing to do with the coronavirus. Instead, it followed from changes in the fundamentals of […] Read more »
The Only (Other) Poll That Matters? Exit Polls and Election Night Forecasts in BBC General Election Results
This article examines the role of results forecasts and exit polls in BBC general election night broadcasts from 1955 to 2017. Despite the substantial role played by academics in results programmes, in devising forecasts and analysing results as they emerge, academic literature on election night broadcasts is scant. This article […] Read more »