It’s a question as obvious as it is critical: How will the trio of crises—the pandemic, the economy, the demands for racial justice—affect the 2020 race for the White House. But in Washington, there are other implications that could matter almost as much to the direction of national policy, chief […] Read more »
The Electoral College won’t save Trump if this keeps up
We’ve learned the lesson multiple times in the last few decades: There is no national presidential election. Candidates can get fewer votes and win, if they win enough states containing a majority of electoral votes. That’s something President Donald Trump may hope happens again, because the national polls have had […] Read more »
Is the 2020 fight for the House already over?
Of the major political handicappers, not even one of them thinks the House is likely to flip in November. Not the folks at the Cook Political Report. Not the analysts at Sabato’s Crystal Ball. And certainly not my colleagues at Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales, who in a recent […] Read more »
Incumbents usually are penalized in times of unrest
… The truth is that we really don’t know how recent events will alter the contours of this year’s presidential race between former Vice President Joe Biden and President Donald Trump. History merely provides a road map with a number of different paths of how the public will react. … […] Read more »
Biden’s in one of the best positions for any challenger since scientific polling began
A new ABC News/Washington Post poll shows former Vice President Joe Biden clearly ahead of President Donald Trump. Biden’s up by a 53% to 43% margin among registered voters in this survey. But it’s important to put individual polls into context, and that context continues to show Biden’s in one […] Read more »
Presidential Job Approval Related to Reelection Historically
President Donald Trump’s prospects of winning a second term in office will be closely tied to the level of his job approval rating. Historically, all incumbents with an approval rating of 50% or higher have won reelection, and presidents with approval ratings much lower than 50% have lost. CONT. Jeffrey […] Read more »