The Economist is analysing polling, economic and demographic data to predict America’s elections in 2020. … Right now, our model thinks Joe Biden is likely to beat Donald Trump in the electoral college. CONT. The Economist The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful […] Read more »
Road to 270: CNN’s debut Electoral College map for 2020
… As has become the norm in American presidential politics, the race to 270 electoral votes is almost certain to come down to a handful of battleground states. So, don’t let all those national polls showing a big advantage for Joe Biden cloud your vision too much. Yes, at this […] Read more »
In These Tribal Times, Leads Don’t Get Much Bigger Than Biden’s
Over the past week, the picture has grown ever more clear: Unless things change in a big way by Nov. 3—or whenever enough votes are counted to make it clear—Republicans are going to have a very bad night. The biggest question is, just how bad. CONT. Charlie Cook Recent polls: Trump […] Read more »
Presidential job approval: Trump’s re-election prospects look bleak
In modern political history, an incumbent’s job approval has been the single best measure of his reelection prospects. If this holds true in 2020, the current outlook for President Trump is bleak, and his ability to turn around his situation will steadily decline as election day nears. … The stability […] Read more »
Wave of New Polling Suggests an Erosion of Trump’s Support
The coronavirus pandemic, a severe economic downturn and the widespread demonstrations in the aftermath of the death of George Floyd in police custody would pose a serious political challenge to any president seeking re-election. They are certainly posing one to President Trump. His approval rating has fallen to negative 12.7 […] Read more »
Biden builds largest lead this year
Our new CNN/SSRS poll jumps right off the screen: Former Vice President Joe Biden has 55% to President Donald Trump’s 41%. Now, any one poll could be deemed an outlier. But let’s get something straight: Biden’s clearly on the upswing in high quality live telephone polling like CNN’s. In fact, […] Read more »