Our latest recap of the accuracy of polling in American elections reinforced something we’ve been saying for a while: The polls are all right. In particular, polls of presidential general elections have historically been quite accurate. …
However, it is not unusual for state polls to be less accurate than national ones (although they did diverge a lot in 2016). … Thanks to our pollster ratings data set, we can quantify which states’ presidential general election polls are the most and least accurate, which can help us better understand the state polls we’ll get later this year. CONT.
Nathaniel Rakich, FiveThirtyEight
The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack