… Trump enters the Republican National Convention in an unusual position for an incumbent: trailing. It’s not just that he’s trailing, though; he’s trailing by a lot. If Trump is to come back and win this election, he’s going to have to rewrite the record books. There have been only […] Read more »
‘Things look a little better on the margin for Trump’
Nate Silver discusses whether or not Trump’s chances of reelection are increasing. This Week, ABC News Read more »
The election forecast wars are here. Here’s how to navigate them.
… Mathematical election predictions can seem both tantalizing and frustratingly opaque. People want to know what will happen, especially in an election as consequential as this one, but they often don’t understand how the people who build these predictive tools reach their conclusions. They may be dazzled by the presentation […] Read more »
Gallup Experts on How Election 2020 Is Different
How does this election year compare with past elections? What do Gallup’s historical measures suggest about today’s political landscape — and what does this mean for President Donald Trump’s reelection prospects? Gallup’s Director of U.S. Social Research Lydia Saad and Senior Editor Jeff Jones join the podcast to discuss presidential […] Read more »
The Resource Trap
Right now, things could hardly be looking brighter for Democrats. At the top of the ticket, the presidential race is looking as good as they could ever have hoped. Downballot, their majority in the House is looking sturdy and their chances of winning control of the Senate are very good, […] Read more »
A Defense of Election Forecasting Models
Key Points• While there is a legitimate debate about the public utility of forecast models, these are tools people in politics, finance, and media use to understand the political environment and make informed decisions. These private goods have corresponding public ones.• Campaign forecasting models, at least the Decision Desk HQ/Øptimus […] Read more »