Key Points
• While there is a legitimate debate about the public utility of forecast models, these are tools people in politics, finance, and media use to understand the political environment and make informed decisions. These private goods have corresponding public ones.
• Campaign forecasting models, at least the Decision Desk HQ/Øptimus Analytics model, do more than provide horse race numbers. We aggregate important data such as polling, FEC reports, and historical results in one place for easy public consumption.
• The goal of a forecast model is not to replace someone’s thinking but to offer a tool to better inform their thought process and ability to reach a conclusion. CONT.
Scott Tranter (Øptimus Analytics), Sabato’s Crystal Ball