The question on a lot of minds over the next week will be whether President Trump and Joe Biden enjoy the customary 5- or 6-point post-convention bounce. … Every time I walk through the data on this election, it just reinforces my view that while an incumbent in this deep […] Read more »
Trump continues to break the polling
… The fact that the conventional wisdom was wrong in 2016 has clearly had a big effect on people’s perceptions and not necessarily in a good way. A plurality of Americans thought that the Republicans would hold onto the House in 2018, even as polling suggested otherwise. They were blown […] Read more »
It’s Biden’s to lose (and he still could): State of the race after the conventions
The election is Joe Biden’s to lose as he continues to hold a lead over President Donald Trump coming out of the Democratic and Republican conventions, which mark the start of the fall campaign. But the future is unknowable. Data has its limits. Surprises happen. The world can change quickly, […] Read more »
Trump is the president of the loud minority, not silent majority
I’ve spent a lot of time talking about the importance of the 50% mark for former Vice President Joe Biden. Biden, unlike Hillary Clinton four years ago, is consistently hitting and exceeding 50% in the polls, which means President Donald Trump can’t just count on late deciders to put him […] Read more »
Many Are Afraid To Say It, but This Is Not a Close Race
… I was thinking about the the Hans Christian Anderson fable “The Emperor’s New Clothes,” which many have cited in writings and cartoons criticizing President Trump. … I think about the story in the context of this election, but not in a way that compares Trump to the king. Rather, […] Read more »
Forecasting the US elections — as of Aug. 24
Right now, our model thinks Joe Biden is very likely to beat Donald Trump in the electoral college. CONT. The Economist Read more »