Long election nights are what make junkies go wild and partisans go crazy. It’s been 144 years since the Electoral College (how we decide our presidents) was last decided by a mere 1 electoral vote. Chances are that whoever wins the presidency will have a more comfortable margin than winning […] Read more »
If Biden Wins The Popular Vote By 2-3 Points, He Isn’t Favored To Win The Electoral College
As he had in 2016, it appears that President Trump has an advantage in the Electoral College, setting him up to potentially win reelection while again losing the popular vote. On this installment of Model Talk on the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss how big Trump’s […] Read more »
With Two Months To Go, a Steady Presidential Race
These last two weeks provided Pres. Trump the best opportunity to change the trajectory of this race. His GOP convention offered a rosy (and inaccurate) portrayal of a president who effectively tackled the coronavirus pandemic. Both during and since the convention, Republicans and the president have focused intensely on the […] Read more »
Nobody can predict this election. Here’s why.
By almost any measure, 2020 is a very different kind of election. A pandemic. A recession. Social protests in multiple cities that are entering their fourth month. Record numbers out of work, and record highs in the stock market. Social distancing in offices, restaurants, even in some homes. The oldest […] Read more »
A tiny change in the electoral math could blow up Joe Biden’s campaign
Joe Biden has a huge advantage in the presidential race, no matter how you look at it. He’s leading President Trump by seven points in national polls; he’s making inroads in red states like Texas and Georgia; and poll averages put him ahead in swing states like Pennsylvania, Florida, Michigan […] Read more »
Presidential Expectations and the Race for the House
Key Points• Perceptions of the presidential race could have some impact down the ballot.• Ticket-splitting is on the decline, but plenty of voters will vote for different parties for president and House, perhaps to the benefit of candidates from both parties.• We are making 14 House rating changes, 10 in […] Read more »