Key Points• Joe Biden is better positioned to win the presidency than Donald Trump, but it would be foolish to rule out another Trump upset.• Trump’s potential winning map would look a lot like 2016, with perhaps a few changes; Biden’s potential winning map might feature Democratic advances in the […] Read more »
All the ‘Rage’: Where the 2020 presidential race stands
With the two national conventions in the rearview mirror and the 2020 election less than two months away, President Donald Trump still finds himself in a deep hole and needing to change the trajectory of the presidential race. … Biden remains a clear favorite in the race. As I have […] Read more »
The 2016 and 2020 races: What’s different?
… Modelers at FiveThirtyEight give Biden a 71 percent chance of winning, while The Economist’s statisticians set the chances at 84 percent. But not so fast. One could travel back to September 2016, substitute Hillary Clinton for Biden and The New York Times for The Economist, and written the same […] Read more »
Democrats are leading in the polls. That means it’s time for them to panic.
The summer is coming to the close of an even-numbered year and Democrats are up in the polls, which means it’s time for them to freak out about the upcoming election. Democrats are nothing if not a self-doubting bunch, and the 2016 election left such a psychic scar that many […] Read more »
Forecasting the US elections — as of Sept. 6
Right now, our model thinks Joe Biden is very likely to beat Donald Trump in the electoral college. CONT. The Economist The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack Read more »
Joe Biden’s true lead is smaller than it appears
Former Vice President Joe Biden continues to hold an advantage over President Donald Trump in the polls. Given that we’re past both major party conventions and closing in on Labor Day, the only fair conclusion to reach is that Biden’s the favorite. Yet, it continues to be clear that the […] Read more »