… Modelers at FiveThirtyEight give Biden a 71 percent chance of winning, while The Economist’s statisticians set the chances at 84 percent.
But not so fast.
One could travel back to September 2016, substitute Hillary Clinton for Biden and The New York Times for The Economist, and written the same two sentences.
No one read the evidence quite correctly then, a failure that should elicit some modesty in pronouncing upon this year’s election.
But modesty in predictions shouldn’t mean ignoring the evidence. This strength of this year’s evidence rests on important quantitative and qualitative differences between this election and the last. CONT.
Mark Mellman (Mellman Group), The Hill