Recent polling shows that President Trump is improving his standing among Latino voters in the presidential race, particularly in Florida. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew talks to pollster Carlos Odio about political trends among Latinos. They also discuss whether polls in the Midwest could be […] Read more »
Why Biden’s national lead matters
… Let’s state it up front: winning the popular vote means nothing in and of itself. You only become president if you win the Electoral College. That said, the national polling matters a lot. We have a ton of it, unlike in a number of swing states. It’s more accurate […] Read more »
Trump gains in latest polling, but Biden’s still in control of the presidential race
President Donald Trump has shrunk former Vice President Joe Biden’s lead in the presidential race over the last few months. The overall dynamics of this race remain unchanged, however. Despite Biden’s edge creeping down, he continues to hold a clear advantage. CONT. Harry Enten, CNN Read more »
If nothing matters, Biden likely wins
Some people call Donald Trump’s term in office the “nothing matters” presidency. The phrase is usually applied to Trump by his detractors, who cannot believe his standing with the American public is stable despite what he says and does. They mean it as good news for Trump. Yet the numbers […] Read more »
History shows why the next few weeks are critical for Trump 2020
We are now in the final stretch of the 2020 presidential campaign. We have a little more than 50 days to go and three debates to get through. Plenty can still happen. History suggests, however, that the next two-and-a-half weeks until the first debate will be a crucial period. If […] Read more »
Electoral College Rating Changes: Florida and Nevada Shift Right
Today we are making two ratings changes in Pres. Trump’s favor, moving Florida from Lean Democrat to Toss Up, and Nevada from Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat. Biden’s Electoral College lead has narrowed to 279 to 187 for Trump. Earlier this summer, Biden held a 308 to 187 lead. CONT. […] Read more »