Niles Edward Francis, contributor to election forecasting site, Decision Desk HQ, and an 18 year old from Georgia, joins MSNBC’s Craig Melvin to talk about how he got involved in politics and election forecasting at such a young age, what needs to be done to engage young voters this November, […] Read more »
The likely voter sham
New York Times data journalist extraordinaire, Nate Cohn, used Twitter last week to announce the Times was “switching to likely voters.” That is, their polls would now reflect the opinions of voters likely to turnout in November. The Times is hardly alone, so it’s a propitious moment to trot out […] Read more »
2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Landscape Tightens Some, But Biden Is Still Ahead
It looks, for now, like President Trump has bounced back a little after bottoming out. The president was at a low point against former Vice President Joe Biden, but in the past month, even though Biden still has an edge, the landscape has tightened some, according to the latest NPR […] Read more »
The Dreaded 269-269 Scenario: An Update
Key Points• The latest Crystal Ball Electoral College ratings show how the presidential election could result in a 269-269 deadlock, with neither Joe Biden nor Donald Trump possessing a majority of 270 electoral votes.• Even though Democrats hold a House majority and remain on track to maintain that majority next […] Read more »
The Strange Origin Story Of Data Science & Elections
Harvard historian and ‘New Yorker’ writer Jill Lepore tells the story of the Simulmatics Corporation. Founded in 1959, it used a so-called “people machine,” a computer program it claimed could predict the impact of political messages or advertising pitches. At the time, Simulmatics drew condemnation from scholars and political leaders […] Read more »
Why Pennsylvania Could Decide The 2020 Election
Right now, Pennsylvania looks like the single most important state of the 2020 election. According to FiveThirtyEight’s presidential forecast, Pennsylvania is by far the likeliest state to provide either President Trump or Joe Biden with the decisive vote in the Electoral College: It has a 31 percent chance of being […] Read more »