While Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s death will go down as yet another historic event in 2020, it’s unlikely to change the fundamental trajectory of the elections. In the middle of huge breaking news stories, it can be hard to remember that the country is incredibly polarized and the […] Read more »
Why it could be a Biden blowout in November
… Models such as those produced by FiveThirtyEight show just how possible it is for Biden to blow Trump out of the water. The model actually anticipates a better chance of Trump closing his deficit than Biden expanding it. Even so, Biden has a better chance (about 45%) of winning […] Read more »
Why Biden and Trump are fighting over one electoral vote in Nebraska
Some states, it seems, get all the attention in presidential elections. You probably know most of them by now: Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, etc. But beyond the big prizes lie the smallest prizes in the competitive races: Maine’s 2nd Congressional District (one electoral vote), Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District (one electoral […] Read more »
2020 Election Scenario Explorer
The Economist election model has Biden at 86%. But what happens if Trump wins Florida? How about if Biden wins Arizona? Which states are most pivotal? By clicking on different states, you can explore how the odds change under different scenarios. CONT. Dan Fernholz & Ric Fernholz Read more »
The Trial-Heat and Convention Bump Forecasts of the 2020 Presidential Election
Key Points• The Trial-Heat and Convention Bump Forecasting Models have an excellent record for accurate predictions of the presidential elections going back to 1992.• Forecasting models depend on applying electoral history to the current election, but 2020 is historically abnormal (at least, in the period since 1948).• The greatest challenge […] Read more »
Your personal election anxiety management calendar is here!
Almost every analysis of the 2020 election says the same thing: Joe Biden has an advantage over President Trump, but data analysts such as me won’t go so far as to predict the ultimate winner outright. Public opinion could change! Trump could outperform his polls! The warnings we repeat are […] Read more »