President Donald Trump heads into the debate trailing former Vice President Joe Biden. Trump is the first incumbent to be losing in the polls at this point since George H.W. Bush in 1992. Trump’s obvious goal for the debate is to try and win back some of the White voters […] Read more »
Demographic shifts since 2016 could be enough to defeat Trump. But it’s complicated.
Four years ago, President Donald Trump lost the popular vote by 2.9 million votes and still won the White House thanks to a near-perfect geographic vote distribution that allowed him to capture big Electoral College prizes by razor-thin margins. The key? Trump’s unprecedented 37-point margin among white voters without four-year […] Read more »
Democrats keep edge in fight for Senate amid growing GOP headache
It was April 20, almost five months ago to the day, when I wrote that “while the fight for Senate control in November is a toss-up, I’d probably put a pinkie on the scale for Democrats right now.” The fight for the Senate is still uncertain, but that pinkie quickly […] Read more »
What to Expect in the 2020 Elections
Political prognostication, by Bruce Mehlman of Mehlman Castagnetti Rosen & Thomas CONT. — pdf Read more »
Rating Changes: Maine Senate Moves to Leans Democratic
Key Points• The passing of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg introduces an explosive new issue into the 2020 contests, although it may not fundamentally alter the race.• Based on trends in public polling, and with a potential assist from Maine’s ranked-choice voting system, we’re moving that state’s critical Senate […] Read more »
Four things that could still affect the presidential race but probably won’t
If there’s anything that’s defined the 2020 presidential race so far it’s stability. No matter what issues and events the world throws at it — and it’s thrown plenty — the polls barely budge. Yes, the overall polling averages have narrowed slightly during September, but Biden continues to have an […] Read more »