Key Points
• Joe Biden is better positioned to win the presidency than Donald Trump, but it would be foolish to rule out another Trump upset.
• Trump’s potential winning map would look a lot like 2016, with perhaps a few changes; Biden’s potential winning map might feature Democratic advances in the Sun Belt and retreats in the Midwest compared to past winning Democratic maps.
• We are moving the single electoral vote in Nebraska’s Second Congressional District from Toss-up to Leans Democratic, which pushes our Electoral College count to 269 electoral votes at least leaning to Biden, 204 at least leaning to Trump, and 65 Toss-up electoral votes (Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, and Wisconsin). CONT.
Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik & J. Miles Coleman, Sabato’s Crystal Ball
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