Key Points
• Perceptions of the presidential race could have some impact down the ballot.
• Ticket-splitting is on the decline, but plenty of voters will vote for different parties for president and House, perhaps to the benefit of candidates from both parties.
• We are making 14 House rating changes, 10 in favor of Democrats and four in favor of Republicans. The changes don’t really impact our overall House assessment, which is that we are not expecting much net change in the makeup of the House. CONT.
Kyle Kondik, Sabato’s Crystal Ball