A wave of new national surveys shows that Joe Biden maintains a significant if slightly diminished lead over Donald J. Trump, leaving him in a stronger position to oust an incumbent president than any challenger heading into his party’s convention in the modern polling era. CONT. Nate Cohn, New York […] Read more »
Forecasting the US elections — as of Aug. 16
Right now, our model thinks Joe Biden is very likely to beat Donald Trump in the electoral college. CONT. The Economist The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack Read more »
‘Trump definitely still has a shot at reelection’
Nate Silver discusses 538’s new 2020 presidential election forecast on “This Week.” This Week, ABC News Read more »
Biden heads into the conventions in a historically strong position
… Biden’s lead has been about as stable as they come. Since the beginning of June, he’s been up by around 8 to 10 points. We’ll see whether the convention period, that begins tomorrow, alters the race. For now though, we can say Biden’s doing better than any challenger heading […] Read more »
Large convention bounces are unlikely In 2020
The major party political conventions have historically been the turning point in many campaigns. In 1988, Democrat Michael Dukakis entered the conventions as the frontrunner, only to leave trailing Republican George H.W. Bush. Four years later, Bush was barely ahead of Democrat Bill Clinton, but Clinton left the conventions with […] Read more »
A big sign Trump is a weak candidate
It’s often been said that President Donald Trump is “underperforming the fundamentals”. Some believe Trump’s doing worse than the average Republican president would be doing in the polls under similar circumstances. It’s difficult to prove that, however. But at least one key indicator suggests Trump is, indeed, doing worse than […] Read more »