… Mathematical election predictions can seem both tantalizing and frustratingly opaque. People want to know what will happen, especially in an election as consequential as this one, but they often don’t understand how the people who build these predictive tools reach their conclusions. They may be dazzled by the presentation and the numbers, but they’re not sure exactly what those images and figures mean. And most of all, lay readers may be confused by seemingly credible forecasts that come up with wildly divergent results.
But there is good news: You don’t have to be a stats nerd to follow models without driving yourself crazy. Over time, I’ve developed a few rules that anyone — with any level of math experience — can use to better understand what these pre-election forecasts mean and how to think about them. CONT.
David Byler, Washington Post